2024\u5e74\u6700\u65b0\u306e\u304a\u3059\u3059\u3081\u30aa\u30f3\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u30dd\u30fc\u30ab\u30fc\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u4e00\u89a7\u306b\u307e\u3068\u3081\u3001\u3069\u3053\u3088\u308a\u3082\u8a73\u3057\u304f\u30e9\u30f3\u30ad\u30f3\u30b0\u3067\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u91d1\uff08\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u30de\u30cd\u30fc\uff09\u3084\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0\u30de\u30cd\u30fc\u3001\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u3067\u53cb\u9054\u3068\u7121\u6599\u5bfe\u6226\u3067\u304d\u308b\u30a2\u30d7\u30ea\u30fb\u30b5\u30a4\u30c8\u3092\u7d39\u4ecb\u3002\u307e\u305f\u3001\u7279\u5fb4\u3084\u53e3\u30b3\u30df\u30fb\u8a55\u5224\u3001\u5165\u91d1\u4e0d\u8981\u30dc\u30fc\u30ca\u30b9\u30fb\u521d\u56de\u5165\u91d1\u30dc\u30fc\u30ca\u30b9\u306a\u3069\u3082\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/span>\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\n\nWhat are “outs” in poker, which are used together with odds?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n Another word often used in conjunction with odds is “outs<\/strong>.<\/span>“<\/p>\n\n\n\nOuts are the number of cards needed to complete a strong hand<\/span><\/strong> .<\/p>\n\n\n\nFor example, suppose you have two ♠\ufe0e in your hand and two ♠\ufe0e on the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, you’re just one ♠\ufe0e away from completing a flush.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are 13 ♠s in total, as they are present in all the numbers from Ace to King. However, since two are already in your hand and two are on the board, 13 minus 4 equals 9 outs.<\/p>\n\n\n
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The number of outs affects the probability of drawing more outs, and therefore the probability of forming a winning hand. Understanding this allows for more rational choices!<\/p>\n<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\nA simple way to calculate outs (the 2%\/4% rule)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n The probability of getting an “out” varies depending on the number of coins, but roughly speaking, if you have one chance, it can be calculated as approximately “number of coins \u00d7 2 (%)”, and if you have two chances, it can be calculated as approximately “number of coins \u00d7 4 (%)”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, in the case of 9 outs mentioned earlier, the approximate probability of forming a winning hand is “9 cards x 2 = 18 (%)” if there is one chance, and “9 cards x 4 = 36 (%)” if there are two chances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you have two chances, one on the turn and one on the river, the probability is multiplied by 4%; if you only have one chance on the river, it’s multiplied by 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n
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This is called the 2%\/4% rule!<\/p>\n<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\nAfter the flop, consider the outs to be 2%<\/h3>\n\n\n\n So, how do we determine the win rate after the flop? We’ll use the rule of outs \u00d7 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, in a case of a flush draw versus a single hit only, your odds would be approximately 36%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIn the case of a flush draw, you’ll be trying to draw the remaining 9 cards, so the probability is approximately 36% (9 x 2% x 2 chances).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When making an odds call, the odds will be calculated to be fair up to the pot bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let’s determine the bet size based on the required winning percentage.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n If you make bets with favorable odds, the probabilities will converge after tens of thousands of hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, an open-ended flush draw has a win rate of over 50% in two chances<\/strong> , unless your opponent has the same suited card .<\/p>\n\n\n\nTherefore, any size you choose for the pot will be acceptable, and the donk bet will also be fully effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If there’s a possibility your opponent has two overcards, and you don’t consider chopping, you have approximately a 24% chance of winning (6 outs x 2% x 2 chances). Up to about half a pot size, the odds are favorable to your opponent, so unless they take a cut, it’s a good opportunity to exploit them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How to determine your bet size using poker odds calculations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n Now, let’s take a more detailed look at how to determine your bet size using poker odds calculations, in a way that’s easy for beginners to understand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To simplify things, let’s assume a heads-up situation where your opponent always calls your hand and loses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Basic bed sizes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n The basic open raise amount pre-flop is around 2BB to 3BB<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIf a heads-up situation is confirmed against a 3BB open, then the pot will have accumulated to 6BB<\/span>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nWhen placing a bet from there, the most common bet sizes are one-third of the pot (2BB), half a pot (3BB), and the full pot size (6BB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The reason is likely that since the win rate for draws is around 30%, if you bet more than one-third, the odds become unfavorable and you won’t get any calls, which is why this size is used.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Odds calculation practice problem 1: What pot size is needed to get a call post-flop?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n Beginners should generally place their bets according to the pot size bets mentioned above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I prepared a problem designed to make you think about how to get an odds call<\/span>, <\/strong>with the intention of exploiting you.<\/p>\n\n\n\nAssuming your opponent will definitely call based on the odds when you have a flush draw, how much should you bet post-flop, considering the pot size, to get them to call?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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See the answer to the calculation<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/i><\/i><\/span><\/summary>\n
The answer is half the size<\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\nOdds calculation practice problem 2: What pot size is needed to get a call on the river?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n The second question is, what would happen in River’s case?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That might be a slightly unusual answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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See the answer to the calculation<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/i><\/i><\/span><\/summary>\n
The answer is one-fifth of the pot size<\/span><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nIf you also bet one-third of the pot on the river, you would need around 25% equity at that point. This makes it a bet that doesn\u2019t match the odds, causing your opponent to fold.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/details>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
How to Calculate Poker Odds and Tips for Tournaments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n Now, let’s look at how to calculate odds that can be used in live tournaments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2460 Remember the amount of chips in the pot.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n First and foremost, you need to be able to instantly memorize the total amount of tips in the pot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This can be easily calculated using multiplication; let’s use the number of participants multiplied by the amount of bet chips <\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nFor example, if 3 people each score 2000 points, the total score would be 6000 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then, in the next betting round, the amount of chips placed based on that number is multiplied and the total is calculated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2461 Current pot: Use your own contribution ratio.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n Now, when calculating the odds, please use ratios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When calculating the ratio, it will vary depending on how much money you put in, based on the current pot amount and the sum of your bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, if you have 4000 points in the pot and your opponent bets 2000 points, calling requires a 33% win rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The calculation is: 6000 points (total pot value) : 2000 points (your initial investment)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThis formula suggests that you need to win one out of every three matches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2462 The required win rate changes when ante is added.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n To delve deeper, it’s important to note that the required win rate changes depending on whether an ante is added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Let’s add a 1000-point ante to the previous example. 7000 points (total pot): 2000 points (your bet) The required win percentage has decreased to 28%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While 5% fluctuations are common in Texas Hold’em, the higher the ante ratio, the lower the required winning percentage becomes, so caution is needed when playing against loose-aggressive players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2463 If rake is added in a cash game, calculate more carefully.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n When playing cash games, don’t forget about the rake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Basically, each time the pot amount is finalized, a rake of approximately 3% to 5% is deducted from the pot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Your required win rate will change accordingly, and if the pot size is smaller, your required win rate will increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Furthermore, when you’ve played tens of thousands of hands, the rake you pay will naturally affect your overall profit, so you need to play carefully.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Types of poker odds<\/h2>\n\n\n\nLet’s briefly explain the different types of odds in poker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pot odds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n Pot odds refer to the ratio of the number of chips you put in relative to the pot, which is used to determine your chances of winning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Basically, with a one-third bet, a 25% chance of winning would give you pot odds that make calling worthwhile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pot odds are calculated and displayed as either “pot amount \/ player’s bet amount” or “pot amount : player’s bet amount”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, if the pot is $100 and you bet $10 on call, the pot odds are 100\/10 = 10\/1, which is written as “10:1 (10-to-1)”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This means that even if you lose 10 times, if you win just once, you’ll break even, meaning you won’t incur any losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, you only need to win once out of 11 plays, and by considering the probability of winning when deciding on your actions, you can optimize your strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What exactly is equity, a term I often hear?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n Simply put, equity refers to the current share of the tip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You can check the odds multiplied by the total chip amount, and the outcome is almost always decided on the river, resulting in either 100% or 0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For beginners, I recommend playing without worrying too much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Implied odds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n Pot odds are a reverse concept, indicating how many chips you can get your opponent to give out when you complete a draw hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since it essentially involves taking a gamble with a low win rate, it has a strong speculative element and can be considered a privilege only permitted to players with a sufficient stack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Recommended apps and tools for calculating poker odds and win rates.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n Calculating poker odds and win rates while actually playing can be time-consuming, especially if you’re not used to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For those who want to get used to thinking about numbers, it’s recommended to use apps or tools that automatically calculate odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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If you want to use it with an iPhone<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nPoker calculator <\/strong>(It will immediately calculate equity and outs once you set it up)<\/li>\n\n\n\nPoker win odds calculator app<\/strong> (includes an algorithm to calculate more accurate probabilities)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
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